Net-Zero Advisory Body responds to today’s announcement of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions target for 2035
The Government of Canada announced today a national greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for the year 2035 of 45-50% below 2005 levels. As members of the Net-Zero Advisory Body (NZAB), a group of independent experts charged with providing independent advice to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, we encourage the government to strive to achieve, as a minimum, the upper end of the selected 45-50% target range.
In our recent report to the Minister, we recommended that the government adopt a reduction target of 50-55% by 2035. Our modelling and analysis showed that targets below 50% will put Canada behind on its legislated objective of net-zero emissions by mid-century. Postponing action means requiring even deeper decarbonization efforts in the future, which could bring higher risks and costs.
We need a national effort to reach, and ideally surpass, a 50% reduction by 2035 while ensuring climate policies are affordable for Canadians. Getting to this milestone, and realizing the many benefits of the transition to a low-carbon economy, will require greater ambition from provinces, territories, municipalities, the private sector as well as the federal government.
Ambitious climate plans are needed to take advantage of Canada’s opportunities in a low-carbon economy. Governments around the world are increasingly recognizing that decarbonization is a unique opportunity to increase economic prosperity and jobs, as well as human and environmental health. The UK announced the equivalent of a 78% reduction below 2005 levels for the year 2035, following the recommendation of its climate advisory group, the Climate Change Committee; the EU is expected to choose a 2035 target in a similar range. Japan has recently proposed a 60% reduction target, in order to stay on a pathway to net-zero.
To facilitate climate action, we have also advised the government to develop a carbon budget, i.e. a total of intended future emissions. Carbon budgets are used by countries like the UK and France, as well as cities like Montreal and Edmonton, to better track the impact their emissions have on the planet. Annual targets only measure the amount of emissions in one year. Yet what matters to the climate is the total emissions over time.
By setting a carbon budget, Canada can better connect the dots between its short-term targets and its long-term goal of net-zero emissions. Evidence from other jurisdictions shows that this cumulative approach to managing emissions helps motivate early action and highlights the trade-offs associated with policy decisions affecting different sectors.
The lower range of the government’s target risks Canada’s ability to stay on track for net-zero emissions. Not using a carbon budget approach further weakens the feedback needed to keep Canada on track. Our research supports our advice that including a carbon budget in Canada’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution, due to be submitted to the UN next year, would better facilitate the transition than point in time targets alone.
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The NZAB was established in 2021 through the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. We are mandated to provide the Minister of Environment and Climate Change with independent advice with respect to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and on interim emissions targets. Our recent report, “Climate’s Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target”, was prepared in response to a request from the Minister for advice on the setting of Canada’s 2035 target. A companion report, “Closing the gap: Reaching Canada’s 2030 Emissions target”, provided advice on how to achieve Canada’s 2030 target.
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We Want to Hear From You – Public Engagement Period Now Open Until December 6, 2024
Help us develop advice on Canada’s options to address excess emissions. Share your input on describing Canada’s net-zero energy system future and provincial and territorial contributions to Canada reaching net-zero.
The Net-Zero Advisory Body (NZAB) is mandated to provide the Minister of Environment and Climate Change with independent advice with respect to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Our independent advice takes into account the best scientific information available, Canada's international commitments with respect to climate change, and Indigenous knowledge.
Engagement is fundamental to the NZAB’s advice, ensuring that our advice to the Minister is informed and reflects the diverse perspectives from across Canada and requiring close collaboration with Indigenous partners, provinces and territories, industry and civil society.
This is an important time for the NZAB. We are undertaking a variety of projects and initiatives to inform our advice to the Minister. This is why we have devised a questionnaire to help develop advice in a collaborative manner.
Current engagement period: open now through December 6, 2024.
To have your voice heard:
- Download the PDF file below containing the questionnaire (Press ↓ under Share this post).
- Fill out all the questions you wish to answer.
- Send completed questionnaires to gcpc-nzab@ec.gc.ca no later than December 6, 2024.
If your submission is on behalf of an organization, please include the name of the organization with your questionnaire submission.
If you are submitting as an individual, to help protect your privacy, you are encouraged not to provide any personally identifiable information.
Thank you for your continued engagement to inform Canada’s pathways to net-zero.
Links
- Climate's Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target
- Technical Annex (Canadian Climate Institute): Options for Canada's 2035 emissions reduction target
NZAB Carbon Budget Panel at COP29
Members from Canada's Net-Zero Advisory Body will be attending the 29th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP), taking place this year in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22. The NZAB is hosting an event at the Canadian Pavilion on November 16.
The Net-Zero Advisory Body is pleased to host Climate's Bottom Line: Carbon Budgets and Global Collaboration at COP29. This will be an international dialogue on carbon budgets as a science-based tool to spur climate action. It will feature insights and findings from our recent report: Climate's Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada's 2035 Target in which we recommend developing a national carbon budget.
Panelists will share perspectives and experiences with carbon budgets, which have been implemented in several countries to better track the effect of policy decisions on the climate and the consequences of delaying action. Carbon budgets specify the total greenhouse gas emissions permitted over a period of time to limit a specific global temperature increase. Akin to a household budget, national carbon budgets can help ensure countries “spend only what they can afford” by tracking cumulative emissions or “expenses” over time and allocating them based on the remaining greenhouse gas emissions in the budget.
The panel will include remarks from Catherine Stewart, Canada’s Ambassador for Climate Change, and feature our co-chair Simon Donner and member Catherine Abreu along with Ben Rhodes, head of the International Climate Councils Network Secretariat, Heleen de Coninck, vice-chair of the Netherlands Scientific Climate Council, and Piers Forster, chair of the UK Climate Change Committee. The panelists will share their perspectives and experiences with carbon budgets, discuss their scientific basis, and identify how carbon budgets can be used alongside other measures to track emissions and communicate national progress towards achieving global climate objectives.
Links
Net-Zero Advisory Body releases reports on Canada’s 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets
Ottawa, Canada, September 26, 2024 –The Net-Zero Advisory Body (NZAB) advises the federal government to redouble its efforts and implement new measures to reach its 2030 climate target and adopt a 2035 target and tools comparable to trading partners.
In a new report, “Climate’s Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target”, the NZAB recommends developing a national carbon budget—the total greenhouse gas emissions that Canada will emit over time. Carbon budgets are used by other countries to better track the effect of policy decisions on the climate and the consequences of delaying action.
Alongside the carbon budget, the NZAB recommends that Canada adopt a 2035 emissions target of 50-55% reduction below 2005 levels. The proposed target meets the Paris Agreement requirement to increase ambition, and will help Canada keep paces with the ambitious climate goals of its G7 partners. Meeting the target will require greater ambition on decarbonization from the federal government, and also from provinces, territories, municipalities, and the private sector.
In a companion report “Closing the Gap: Reaching Canada’s 2030 Emissions Target”, the NZAB advises the federal government on how the country can achieve its 2030 target, of a 40-45% reduction below 2005 levels. The report highlights five key areas of action: 1) Finalize existing policy measures, 2) Address negative interactions between policies, 3) Strengthen industrial carbon pricing, 4) Secure additional reductions from the oil and gas sector, and 5) Pursue a small number of additional high-impact actions. These complementary actions will give Canada the best chance of meeting its target.
The reports were developed in response to requests from the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, and with the support of research from the Canadian Climate Institute.
Canada committed to reduce GHG emissions by 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 as its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. The 2030 target is established in legislation through the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. The Act also requires Canada to announce its 2035 target by December 1, 2024.
The 2030 and 2035 targets are crucial milestones to ensure Canada is on the right path to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Net-zero refers to the balance between the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) that is produced and the amount that's removed from the atmosphere. Efforts to mitigate climate action over the next decade will be critical to setting Canada up for success on our pathway to net-zero.
Quick Facts
- NZAB is mandated under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act to engage Canadians and provide independent advice to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change with respect to achieving Canada’s target of net-zero emissions by 2050.
- NZAB members are appointed by the Governor in Council and bring together a diverse range of expertise. The NZAB provides independent advice to the Minister based on the best available scientific information and knowledge, including Indigenous Knowledge.
- To inform its advice, NZAB engaged with decision-makers and experts, including industry experts, academics, labour representatives, and non-governmental organizations, and published an initial summary of what was heard through the NZAB’s engagement activities on its website.
- The Canadian Climate Institute provided research and analytical support in Technical Annexes that accompany the NZAB reports.
Links
- Climate's Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target
- Technical Annex (Canadian Climate Institute): Options for Canada's 2035 emissions reduction target
- Closing the Gap: Reaching Canada’s 2030 Emissions Target
- Technical Annex (Canadian Climate Institute): Closing the Gap to 2030
Quotes
“The 2035 target is a crucial milestone on Canada’s pathway to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Our efforts to mitigate climate change over the next decade will be critical to setting Canada up for success on our pathway to net-zero, including realization of benefits such as jobs in the growing renewable energy sector, more affordable and reliable electricity, and improved health through cleaner energy.”
~Sarah Houde, NZAB Co-Chair
“The Government of Canada has made significant progress on climate action to reduce emissions over the past eight years since signing the Paris Agreement in 2016. However, more aggressive and sustained action is necessary to reach our 2030 emissions target and to shift to a long-term net-zero pathway. Our advice focuses on how to finish what has been started, improve what exists, and then implement new policies.”
~Simon Donner, NZAB Co-Chair
Compete and succeed in a net zero future
Concrete solutions that the Government of Canada should implement to ensure that Canada benefits from a carbon-neutral global economy, accelerates the achievement of a carbon-neutral economy and generates clean prosperity for generations to come.