Net-Zero Advisory Body responds to today’s announcement of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions target for 2035
The Government of Canada announced today a national greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for the year 2035 of 45-50% below 2005 levels. As members of the Net-Zero Advisory Body (NZAB), a group of independent experts charged with providing independent advice to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, we encourage the government to strive to achieve, as a minimum, the upper end of the selected 45-50% target range.
In our recent report to the Minister, we recommended that the government adopt a reduction target of 50-55% by 2035. Our modelling and analysis showed that targets below 50% will put Canada behind on its legislated objective of net-zero emissions by mid-century. Postponing action means requiring even deeper decarbonization efforts in the future, which could bring higher risks and costs.
We need a national effort to reach, and ideally surpass, a 50% reduction by 2035 while ensuring climate policies are affordable for Canadians. Getting to this milestone, and realizing the many benefits of the transition to a low-carbon economy, will require greater ambition from provinces, territories, municipalities, the private sector as well as the federal government.
Ambitious climate plans are needed to take advantage of Canada’s opportunities in a low-carbon economy. Governments around the world are increasingly recognizing that decarbonization is a unique opportunity to increase economic prosperity and jobs, as well as human and environmental health. The UK announced the equivalent of a 78% reduction below 2005 levels for the year 2035, following the recommendation of its climate advisory group, the Climate Change Committee; the EU is expected to choose a 2035 target in a similar range. Japan has recently proposed a 60% reduction target, in order to stay on a pathway to net-zero.
To facilitate climate action, we have also advised the government to develop a carbon budget, i.e. a total of intended future emissions. Carbon budgets are used by countries like the UK and France, as well as cities like Montreal and Edmonton, to better track the impact their emissions have on the planet. Annual targets only measure the amount of emissions in one year. Yet what matters to the climate is the total emissions over time.
By setting a carbon budget, Canada can better connect the dots between its short-term targets and its long-term goal of net-zero emissions. Evidence from other jurisdictions shows that this cumulative approach to managing emissions helps motivate early action and highlights the trade-offs associated with policy decisions affecting different sectors.
The lower range of the government’s target risks Canada’s ability to stay on track for net-zero emissions. Not using a carbon budget approach further weakens the feedback needed to keep Canada on track. Our research supports our advice that including a carbon budget in Canada’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution, due to be submitted to the UN next year, would better facilitate the transition than point in time targets alone.
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The NZAB was established in 2021 through the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. We are mandated to provide the Minister of Environment and Climate Change with independent advice with respect to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and on interim emissions targets. Our recent report, “Climate’s Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target”, was prepared in response to a request from the Minister for advice on the setting of Canada’s 2035 target. A companion report, “Closing the gap: Reaching Canada’s 2030 Emissions target”, provided advice on how to achieve Canada’s 2030 target.
